Prediction Market Valuations Since Trump Jr.'s Involvement
Jan 2025 – Feb 2026 · Kalshi (adviser) & Polymarket (investor via 1789 Capital)
Jan '25 → Feb '26
Kalshi Valuation
$0.5B→$11B+2100%
Trump Jr. = paid adviser (no equity)
Aug '25 → Feb '26
Polymarket Valuation
$1B→$9B+800%
1789 Capital holds equity stake
Polymarket only (equity)
Est. Trump Jr. Paper Gain
$10–$19M invested→$80–$152M gain~9x
"Double-digit millions" at $1B valuation
Kalshi(Paid adviser)
Polymarket(Equity investor via 1789 Capital)
Methodology:
Valuations from disclosed funding rounds (Axios, TechCrunch, Crunchbase, Kalshi/Polymarket announcements).
Kalshi Jan '25 figure (~$500M) is an estimate; last disclosed round pre-Series C was Series B ($30M, 2022).
Paper gain estimate based on Axios reporting that 1789 Capital invested "double-digit millions" at ~$1B Polymarket
valuation (Aug 2025). Range uses $10M–$19M invested. No disclosed Kalshi equity for Trump Jr. — his role is a
paid advisory position only. Private company valuations are paper values, not realized gains.